An EU without Great Britain is doomed, and Germany would be the biggest loser

The EU, and especially Germany, is still not able to comprehend the consequences of Brexit. The problem is not only that the EU is losing a net contributor to the budget but that Germany will pickup the largest part of the shortfall. The main problem is the wrong political direction which the policy in Europe would accelerate, namely centralisation, harmonisation and common debt.

Policy makers, who are advocates for an even closer union holding to a federal EU ideology, were witnesses of the downfall of the hastily implemented Euro and they could recognise that the Euro is a part of too much Europe. The Eurozone is the worst performing economic region in the world. However the total failure doesn’t bother Brussels - or so it seems. They fail to see the warning signs and continue without limits on integration, backing a wrong policy.

The Eurozone is the worst performing economic region in the world. However the total failure doesn’t bother Brussels - or so it seems. They fail to see the warning signs and continue without limits on integration, backing a wrong policy.

On the contrary the growing crisis, which Commission President Juncker labels a ‘polycrisis’ is wrongly seen as a chance to introduce steps to a closer union. With Brexit they have achieved their first big goal, to have an opponent removed. Now the way is free for a socialised EU and a more state controlled economy in France’s favour. The aim is a version of Europe built on claimed common interests as a dogma, not to increase wealth at all.

Why did France and German politicians prevent the merger of Airbus and BAE in 2012? They didn’t stand for a business driven integrated Europe. They wanted to have a very certain Europe, thereby introducing a hidden agenda. BAE is the total opposite of Airbus. Airbus is planned as a European Champion. It is a creation from industrial policy in response to the challenges of globalisation. BAE is a free enterprise with an international standing of its own. It’s not related to politics, so it is more open to international business.

Obviously the merger was a threat to the concept of the closer union with a stronger state. As a former supervisory board member of the German holding company of Airbus I was annoyed about this political decision. EU-ideology doesn’t support business. Many EU politicians just want to have more power. Business interests are a better bond than Brussels to keep countries together. But the power of economic success is not provided by the EU. Redistribution with funds and common liability is the new EU-agenda.

Surely a more integrated aviation and defence industry would be another precondition for the Brexit. Especially it would be another precondition for the defence union. Now the defence union is a a toothless tiger, it will be a pure state project without basis.

It’s clear we now have a different union from the one Britain joined over 40 years ago. The rules have changed from the principles of subsidiarity and competitiveness to centralisation and harmonisation. So it’s not that Britain is leaving the EU, the EU is leaving Britain. Violating the rules of the Maastricht Treaty were the first steps in this downfall leading to the rise of populism. Eurobonds and a European Treasury Department would be the next. The British Prime Minister, Theresa May has come to the only logical conclusion: embracing Brexit to boost the competitiveness of her country.

Likely the liberal minded and business-oriented Britain will have a better trade deal with the US, in place earlier than the incapacitated EU. Not only the Brexiteers are to blame for Brexit. The EU has become incapacitated, and without this handicap Great Britain can continue with the to be the pragmatic voice of reason negotiating a successful business future.